A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will prevail here and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has has something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
